Given the relative weakness of UFC 78: Validation, we are breaking from tradition and only previewing the main event. While the Chonan/Parisyan bout certainly looks interesting, the Bisping/Evans encounter is the only match on the card that has any title ramifications.
You can bet that if either Rashad or “The Count” take the win in convincing fashion, they will be thrust right into the mix in the Light Heavyweight Title hunt. So who’s gonna win?
Looking at the pair’s past few fights, Rashad is coming off a draw with Tito, but previous to that had 2 very impressive stoppage victories over Sean Salmon and Jason Lambert.
While Bisping is coming off a win, it was a very questionable split decision over arch-rival Matt Hamill.
Evans has unquestionably faced the stiffer competition in the UFC, but struggled to finish fights until his bout with Lambert. Bisping’s most impressive win was last December against Eric Shafer, where The Count was able to defend Shafer’s relentless take down attempts and eventually finish him.
Rashad’s Pros & Cons: Evans does not have quite the wrestling pedigree of Matt Hamill, however Rashad is no slouch. He is incredibly explosive with his takedowns and was at times able to manhandle Ortiz in their bout, which is no easy task. Both Schafer, and especially Hamill proved that while Bisping’s takedown defense is solid, it is anything but impenetrable so expect to see the fight go to the ground should Rashad decide to take it there.
Rashad also has very good boxing. He is confident in his hands and will likely keep it standing until he gets caught. His confidence may be a little unwarranted as he has mainly fought other wrestlers to this point with Stephan Bonnar being the best striker he has faced to date. Bonnar gave Rashad all sorts of trouble standing up forcing Rashad to resort to a “Lay and Pray” strategy.
Bisping’s Pros & Cons: While Bonnar may have an edge on The Count in strictly boxing, I have no doubt that Bisping has the better kickboxing game and based on the way Bonnar troubled Evans in the stand up department, this could prove to be Rashad’s downfall. Bisping has surely been training for Rashad’s takedowns and may serve up a knee to Mr. Evans’ grill should Rashad telegraph a shot.
If Evans get Bisping to the mat, it’s questionable what The Count will be able to do from his back. Bisping was unable to finish the less experienced Hamill from his gaurd while spending the majority of their tilt in that position.
Verdict: I would have to agree with Vegas here and give Rashad (-300) the advantage. I simply don’t see The Count (+220) being able to avoid Rashad’s takedowns for 15 straight minutes. Rashad is a smart fighter and will not keep it standing if he’s taking abuse. Unless he eats a knee on the way in for a double leg and goes directly to sleep, look for the TUF 2 winner to have his hand raised in a unanimous decision victory.
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