This is the first of my matchup breakdowns, I’m gonna shed some light into the world of MMA handicapping and oddsmaking in the next few days.
Not that that means a damn thing since there’s been nothing but grotesque upsets in the last few months, making us fight prognosticators look like a bunch of hacks…but trust me, there is a formula and a few categories that we can match fighters against head to head that gives a fairly good cross section of what SHOULD happen in a fight. And even if it doesn’t, its a great way to get a grasp of the game!
UFC72 Matchup Breakdown #1 - MacDonald vs Singer
Our favorite Canuck is back pretty quick after the hammering he took at the hands of Ace. He had a damn good streak going too, 6 MMA wins in a row, two of which were UFC victories.
Singer showed a lot of cojones during TUF3, losing to Ed Herman in the Semi’s. Since that loss, He’s had wins against Ross Pointon in the TUF3 finale and Josh Haynes at the Ortiz - Shamrock 3 undercard. He did get rocked by Rich Franklin’s UFC72 opponent Yushin Okami which makes for a logical match up in MacDonald.
We’re going to break down each fight into 5 categories (there are craploads more, but this is what we’ll use) : Striking, Submissions, Defense, Balls, Competition
1) Striking - 18 wins by J-mac…one TKO. He’s shown a lot of improvement in this category but hasn’t been able to hang with bangers, even overrated ones…on the other hand, Singer has only one knockout as well. The only thing that skews this category is the fact that Rory singer has NEVER been KO’d. I don’t think Jason has the ability to put this kid down.
EDGE: Singer
2) Submissions - These dudes are straight up submissions ballers. Between these two they have 29 wins with 23 submissions. Sick. The only tiebreaker is the variety of submissions. Jason Macdonald has literally submitted people in every manner imaginable, he can make people tapout with a wink from his dressing room.
EDGE: MacDonald
3) Defense - Both guys are active and extremely capable in the mount and/or guard, its difficult to see who has a distinct advantage. You have take into account the fact that Singer has never been knocked out, but the way Macdonald takes punishment without going out adds to his capability to withstand an attack…which is essentially defense.
EDGE: Even
4) Balls - Without question its Macdonald. Both these guys are hella tough but J-Mac took a savage beating at the hands of Rich Franklin and not only didn’t go out, he didn’t go down…his freaking corner had to throw in the towel.
EDGE: MacDonald
5) Competition - Macdonald has lost 8 times…to essentially the cream of the crop of the recent UFC; Franklin, Cote, Starnes, Eastman, Carter. Singer has lost too, but that not what puts him behind in this category…its who he’s beat. On that list is a guy named Butch Bacon (wtf?). And other than losing badly to Yushin Okami…he hasn’t faced nearly the level of competition of Macdonald.
EDGE: Macdonald
3 -1 for the Canadian kid, there you go…according to this highly technical analysis Macdonald should win this handily!
Oh wait, this is the frikkin UFC, I’m gonna look like a total douchebag with this pick in about four days…awesome.
Look for the rest of the UFC72 card Matchup Breakdowns in the coming days!
(1 votes, average: 1 out of 5)
Just like Public Enemy said: Don’t believe the hype!
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